For a whole week I was skeptical about the number of victims in Ukraine. Other analysts are beginning to come to the same conclusion.
You can find more of my arguments in my latest writingsbut in short, the number of victims varies everywhere depending on who speaks. A few weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 50-100 Ukrainians were killed a week, then a week later someone else said they were 100-200, then this week it was 200-300. now this:
Meanwhile, on the ground, photos of NASA’s FORMING on fire show heavier artillery fire in Russian-held territory, Russia is advancing to crawl, and Ukraine is earning territory around Kharkiv and Kherson.
For example, Russia took Popasna more than four weeks ago. Time flies, huh? During this time, while pushing 14 different directions (see my Last update), on CA MOST Russian forces have managed to expand in each direction of 15 kilometers (10 miles). They are on average about half a kilometer a day. 500 meters. Given that Ukraine still holds about 5,000 square miles of territory in the Donbass, someone else can calculate how long it may take to conquer everything. No one has to worry, it doesn’t happen.
If Russia really had a 10-1 advantage in artillery (British intelligence said 20-1 yesterday!), things would look seriously different, no matter how many shells the civilian infrastructure invaders spend. Undoubtedly, Ukraine has suffered serious losses. But I read this tweet above and my brain sees it as “Please send more stuff!” For context, List of Oryx of the visually confirmed Russian losses are currently 781 Russian tanks, 1402 armored infantry and 204 artillery systems (which were destroyed behind enemy lines, so difficult to document until the territory is liberated).
Ukraine has clearly decided that asking for poverty is the best way to start taking into account European support quickly. And it may have happened, given this week’s visit of the heads of state of France, Germany and Italy. But Ukraine looks better when it plays on its strengths – its resilience, its refusal to bend or cede territory easily, the courage of its troops and the strength of its civilians. They are the defense of Europe (and Central Asia) from Russian aggression. And if we want some real policy, they are waging a war that NATO is meant to wage, but without having to do any of the dying.
Meanwhile, it was obviously the day of “patting Marcos on the back” on Twitter:
Ben Hodges is a former commander-in-chief of all US forces in Europe. And so did Mark Hertling.
I am deeply moved by people whining about the pace and amount of equipment sent. These logistical challenges are not insurmountable, but they are serious and take time to resolve. I don’t seem to be the only one.
Take the Combat Team of the American Brigade (BCT), the main combat deployment unit for the United States (until 2013 it was much larger divisions.) Unlike the tactical group of the Russian Battalion (BTG), which is 10 tanks, 40 combat vehicles of infantry (BMP) and about 600-800 soldiers, BCT is much larger. The exact composition of the BCT depends on the specific type of unit (armored, light infantry, mechanized infantry, etc.), but the armored BCT is about 4400 soldiers, 87 tanks, 152 IFVs, 18 artillery pieces and 45 armored M113s carriers for various supporting roles.
Now here’s the thing –the cost of moving this BCT is $ 66,735 per mile. A mile!
These are fuel, parts, food, etc. This is the cost of logistics. People looked at the latest US aid package and its billions of dollars and had all sorts of comments about how a little he seemed to deliver. Some Harpoon anti-ship missiles (already in action) and 18 M777 artillery pieces. Still, one of the main points for this aid package was “and parts”. Ukrainian brigades will not be as expensive as American ones for one main reason – they do not have to carry jet fuel to their tanks as they need American ones (the biggest reason Ukraine does not receive American tanks). But relocating an army is still incredibly expensive and logistically complicated.
In fact, this is the probable reason for Ukraine to age the M113s armored personnel carriers, costing $ 58 per mile, instead of the more modern Bradley M2 infantry fighting vehicles, $ 162 per mile. And don’t think that it’s just a matter of tripling operating costs, that it’s money. Much of this cost is fuel, and every extra gallon of fuel needed to move a vehicle requires many more tankers to transport that fuel to the front lines. And if there is one thing that Russia has done right in this war, it is aimed at Ukrainian fuel depots.
Just as HIMARS and MLRS are useless if Ukraine and its allies cannot carry enough missile capsules up front, armored vehicles are useless if Ukraine cannot supply them with fuel. In fact, much of Ukraine’s army is a former Russian vehicle that simply ran out of gas in the first weeks of the war.
On the diplomatic front, Russia is hosting an international economic forum in St. Petersburg. Petersburg to pretend that everything is as usual (literally). The problem is that not many nations have emerged, only those like the Taliban and Kazakhstan. He made the latter special awkward moment, as two dictators, Vladimir Putin and Kazakhstan’s powerful man Kasim-Jomart Tokayev shot at each other as they sat together on stage.
Ugh, a way to tell the person next to you, from a former Soviet republic, that Russia is not happy with the current agreement. Putin has made it clear that Ukraine is only the beginning, not the end. But don’t worry, no one is afraid of Russia anymore and Tokayev received his blows later:
Kazakhstan is a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a NATO alliance between Russia and several of its former Central Asian republics: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (Turkmenistan and Mongolia). are “observers”). These countries have not simply ignored Putin’s demands for military aid, only Belarus has voted with Russia when the UN condemned the Russian invasion in early March.
Now half of these countries are shooting at each other, so this is not exactly a harmonious “union”, and Russia is playing favorites, with Armenia’s support against Turkish-backed Azerbaijan, both in a bloody border dispute. Now one CIS country is actively arming Ukraine.
The list of still friendly nations with Russia continues to shrink.