Glowing demand for housing cools to red as mortgage rates and inflation rise

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The housing market, which only intensified during the pandemic, began to decline as higher mortgage rates and still rising house prices pushed some prospective home buyers away.

Recent reports from Redfin and Re / Max also present an industry that is shifting to a lower gear than the pace of turbocharging. For example, the closure of housing in May, usually one of the busiest months of the year for home sales, fell 8.5% from a year ago, Re / Max said in its May 2022 Housing Report.

In addition, stocks are beginning to increase, although they remain well below historic levels. May end with 16.3% more homes for sale compared to Aprilsaid Re / Max. The monthly supply of stocks increased to 0.9 from 0.8 in April. In the five years before the pandemic, the more typical level of inventory was delivery in two to three months, according to the company.

This did not stop the rise in house prices. The average selling price of $ 430K in May 2022 increased by 1.2% from April’s $ 425K and was 13.2% higher than $ 380K in May 2021. Another indication that house prices did not are almost soft: the average price ratio close to the list in May was 103%, which means that homes were sold for 3% more than the asking price. This compared to almost 14% in April and 102% in May 2021.

Redfin sees similar dynamics in competing housing offers. The typical home in the bidding war received 5.3 offers in Maya decline of 6.8 in April and 7.4 in May 2021, according to its agents.

“Competition from home buyers is cooling because rising mortgage rates and rising house prices have made buying a home less feasible for many Americans,” Redfin said. This is confirmed by the typical monthly mortgage interest rate for a new home buyer – $ 2,514 at the current mortgage interest rate of 5.78%, which is almost 50% more than a year earlier, when mortgage interest rates were 2.93%.

Redfin economists expect the bid rate to fall below 50% by the end of 2022 – an average of 5.6% of homes for sale each week have fallen in prices, the highest level since Redfin began collecting data in early 2015 d. This means that 22.4% of homes for sale throughout the period of four-233 thousand had a decline in prices.

They were also home sellers they are more likely to reduce their catalog price for the four weeks ended June 12, Redfin said in a separate report.
Over the past five years, real estate companies have outperformed both housing companies and the S&P 500. can be seen in the graph below.
With moderation, analysts are re-evaluating their ratings. Wales Fargo downgrade Toll Brothers (TOL), MDC HoldingsMDC) and Meritage Homes (MTH), while BofA downgraded Dream Finders Homes (DFH). B. Riley downgraded at the home of Taylor Morrison (TMHC), Three Pointe HomesTPH), and Green Brick PartnersGRBK).

Existing data on home sales in May are expected on Tuesday, with an annual rate of 5.39 million expected. 5.61 million in April. New data on home sales for May will be released on Friday, with 580,000 expected, up from 591,000 in April.

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