Five prospects correspond to the noise in 2022

With the 2022 baseball season in full swing, let’s take a look at some highly publicized prospects that match the noise this season.

Five great prospects for hype

Gunnar HendersonBaltimore Orioles, 20, 3B / SS (AAA)

(AA) 208 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .312 / .452 / .573

Few potential customers have done more to improve their shares than Henderson. Coming out of a satisfying but unimpressive 2021 season, Henderson sparked second-tier matches. Since winning the Triple-A promotion, he has continued to penalize opposing pitchers with .286 / .500 / .536 with two home runs in 40 appearances. He also has 12 walks against just five outs. In Double-A, he scored 19.7 percent walking and 18.3 percent striking.

His strange performance has so far been supported by scout observations. I spoke to Orioles director of player development Matt Blood before the season, and he specifically highlighted Henderson as the one who turned the corner mentally. Last year, Henderson had some of the markers of passivity, namely high walking frequency, high strikethrough frequency, and modest swing frequency. He has reportedly improved his selectivity this season by punishing pitches in the zone while continuing to spit on those outside the zone.

Henderson is currently ranked 45th List of the best prospects of MLB Pipeline. At this rate, he will soon join the Top 10 – unless he competes with the big ones, before the compilers of the list have time to adjust. People who prepare your list of favorite potential customers tend to be quite conservative when it comes to upgrading guys based on a partial break of the season and with good reason. We have seen many players publish astronomical half-seasons in order to resume a simpler path of development later.

Michael Harris IIAtlanta Braves, 21, OF (MLB)

70 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .328 / .357 / .537

As far as I know, Harris was the third player to be promoted directly from Double-A to the Premier League starting lineup this season. The first, CJ Abrams, was overexposed in Majors. Cubs Assistant Christopher Morel looks like home in the big league. So is Harris.

Harris makes contact at a low angle with an approach to all fields. He also makes frequent hard and aimless contacts. Both percentages are above the league average as measured by Statcast. Taken together, he has the traits of a high average striker. Where he seems to lag behind is plate discipline. He took a swing-satisfying approach to his first appearance at the big tournament and was inclined to offer it on courts outside the area. His swing percentage in the zone is just a hair above the league average. His percentage of contact is also approximately average for the league. In other words, his aggression was not expensive. More.

It is not uncommon for physically gifted prospects to reach majors, perform surprisingly well, and then fall after scouting reports are adjusted. In Harris’ case, scouts will advise a group to break balls outside the area. If it drops, it may get a delayed taste of Triple-A. If he adjusts quickly or otherwise behaves, then he is probably here to stay.

Harris is in the middle of a series of eight games, over which he hits .433 / .469 / .800 with home runs and thefts.

Eli de la CruzCincinnati Reds, 20, 3B / SS, (A +)

222 PA, 12 HR, 17 SB, .304 / .351 / .594

If you haven’t heard of De La Cruz yet, expect to see his name appear in more and more articles. The scouts love its construction – it has the power of a light tower, almost elite speed and a handgun. He is already making some of the strongest contacts with minors. Although he has worked mostly in shortstop, he is expected to eventually move to third base or perhaps even to center field.

The prospect of being like De la Cruz always comes with warnings. His discipline on the plate can be (generously) described as dubious. His current walking rate of 6.3 percent is a significant improvement over the 4.8 percent he posted last season. Meanwhile, its cancellation rate of 30.6 percent is exactly in line with its previous performance.

Given his current contact profile, he may be in Javier Baez– like mold. Or maybe Oneil Cruz is the better comp. After all, they are both physical mutants who can stick to the short point. Coincidentally, Cruz posted similar figures as a 20-year-old in High-A, then stayed at Double-A later that year. Cruz even had questions about the discipline on his plate. The Reds have no incentive to hurry De la Cruz, but he must smell the upper minors in the coming months.

Matt BrushSeattle Mariners, 24, SP / RP (AAA)

19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15.16 K / 9, 5.21 BB / 9

Brash entered the season in the rotation of the Sailors, blinded in his debut, and then continued to travel the world. I remember watching this first outing and worrying about what would happen when the attackers stopped swinging his balls outside the zone. He showed no signs of commanding anything in the strike area. Of course, it quickly became a problem. The Sailors decided to downgrade it from the rotation of the Premier League straight to the Triple-A bullpen. The mitigating role offers a more direct path for pitchers with the combination of Brush of dirty stuff and poor command.

The signs point in the right direction. After some initial wrestling with the teams, Brash has a series of 10 innings without results, dating from May 25, which includes only five hits and two walks compared to 16 outs. He looks ready for prime time again. Unfortunately for him, the Seattle visor is quite strong and will soon have to make way for it Ken Giles (who accidentally swings in his rehabilitation task). Brash may have to wait a few injuries to regain his role.

George ValeraCleveland Guardians 21, OF (AA)

236 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .291 / .398 / .513

Expectations for Valera vary considerably depending on the source. I’ve seen Cleveland fans compare him Mike Trout. I’ve also seen open skepticism about his hit instrument. His performance this season did not exactly support any of these extreme interpretations. Instead, it seems to be on trend as a regular regular outfielder.

Valera works counts and works with an acceptable 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. This helped him reach about 23 percent of the strikeout rate each time he settled down. His strikeout rate tends to jump above 30 percent as he moves up a level. It seems to be close to a rise in Triple-A. We should probably expect another temporary jump in the outlines when this happens. His model of wrestling, then dominating each step of the ladder of the minor leagues, recalls Joe Adele. Valera’s discipline should serve to secure some role in the big league.

Four more

Zack Gelof, 2B / 3B / OF, OAK (22): Achieved in 2021, Athletics raised Gelof straight from Low-A to Triple-A last season, where he excelled in a 13-plate test. They hired him for Double-A this season. He was hit .315 / .372 / .458. Geloff recently tore a labrum on his shoulder without throwing and may miss most of this season, depending on his treatment plan.

Jackson Churio, 2B / CF, MIL (18): Each season there is a potential teenager who captures the imagination of every observer. Last year was De la Cruz. This season it’s Chourio. Scout reports abound with praise for the young outfielder. He is currently scoring .347 / .394 / .599 with six home runs and five thefts in 160 appearances. It is unusual for well-rounded athletes to show as much strength as an 18-year-old. Churio is far from specializing, but his path is already paved. He just has to stay on it and walk the other miles.

Andrew PainterRHP, PHI (19): Painter mocked the complex league, posting a 1.40 ERA with 16.06 K / 9 and 3.72 BB / 9. He showed an advanced sense of pitcher at his age. Notes by Eric Longenhagen from FanGraphs how well it combines a high fast ball on the side of the hand with a biting slider. He also makes a curve and a change, both lagging behind his two main proposals. He will have to develop them to stay in rotation. Painter was recently promoted to High-A.

Bobby Miller, RHP, LAD (23): Flame Right, Miller has mixed results in Double-A. He published a 4.60 ERA with 9.57 K / 9 and 3.26 BB / 9 Hunter Green– I feel for Miller. His fast ball goes over 100 miles per hour with regularity, but some features make him play down. There is a risk of relief here, especially if the Dodgers do not exchange it. They have the resources to use it in any role that provides the most instant gratification.

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